Transcendental Generalization

From a Wall Street Journal cover story, Tuesday, April 18, 2006:

…Investment flows into oil futures are supplanting…supply-and-demand data as prime drivers of prices…In contrast to past bull markets in crude, this year’s run-up has occurred even though oil inventories in the U.S…have swelled to their highest levels in nearly eight years…

The answer to the puzzle posed by rising prices and inventories…lies not only in supply constraints…and the broad upswing in demand [from] China and India. Increasingly…prices are also being guided by a continuing rush of investor funds into oil markets…”The relationship between U.S. inventory levels and prices has…become irrelevant.”

If prices are rising faster than they should given current supply and demand, then there seems to be an oil bubble. What could cause it to pop?

One reason for the anomaly…is temporary. …refiners have shut down operations to perform maintenance and prepare to meet new government-mandated fuel formulas.

…The last time U.S. inventories were at today’s levels, in 1998, the market was about to crash. By the end of 1998, prices fell below $11 a barrel from an average $18.32 in December 1997…OPEC…fears a return to backwardation–the opposite of contango…[which] could prompt speculative buyers to dump inventories; prices could quickly drop $20 a barrel or more, OPEC officials said.

The U.S. Department of Energy has A Primer on Gasoline Prices.

Other sources of information: P K Verleger, Energy Information Administration

I recently noticed wires snaking through a friend’s jacket. Turns out he was wearing Technology Enabled Clothing from Scott E. Vest. They sell sports jackets, dress jackets, and pants with numerous hidden pockets, linings that accommodate wires, and even solar panels to recharge USB-compatible devices.

I don’t know if this is a profound statement about philanthropy or capitalism or maybe just one of those weird things that happens. This article from The Boston Globe describes Kyle MacDonald’s success at bartering over the internet. Starting with a single red paper clip, he has bartered his way to a year’s free rent at a house in Phoenix. His goal is his own home free and clear.

This article arrived in my inbox. As one with an interest in unusual input devices, I had to blog it.

Call me a masochist, but I’ve always done my own taxes and frequently refer to the instructions. I used to ignore the references to “Regulations Section X.XXX(x)-X” but this year decided to follow through. Turns out our government did some good work and made the tax code available at the web site of The National Archive and Records Administration.

I was surprised by how readable it was. I think professional lawyers and accountants have a vested interest in making tax laws seem completely incomprehensible to laypeople. After all, they make their money interpreting them for us. On the other hand, being able to read and understand the tax code doesn’t make me an expert on its provisions and loopholes!

Business Week (registration required) reviewed Sony’s attempt to take market share away from Apple’s iPod with its new Walkman, due in the US this spring. The author of the article doesn’t believe this product will do it for Sony.

Business Week (registration required) had an interesting article on network devices for storage and backup which are becoming more consumer-friendly. The storage devices mentioned:

• Maxtor Shared Storage Plus
• Netgear Storage Central SC101

Backup solutions mentioned:

• Memeo AutoBackup
• IBM Tivoli Continuous Data Protection (did you ever think you could buy something from IBM for only $35?)

The Wall Street Journal (on p. W14 of Friday, March 24) reviewed memory foam mattress pads, a cheaper alternative to complete mattresses.

Makers say “viscoelastic” foam conforms to the heat of your body, reducing pressure points and making for a better night’s rest.

Their favorite was the Sensus 5lb 3″ Memory Foam Mattress Topper.

The Wall Street Journal (p. D5 on March 22) had an interesting review of the Roku SoundBridge Radio. The review is positive overall, but complains about the user interface. They also mentioned the following products:

• Slim Devices Squeezebox
• Netgear MP101 Wireless Digital Music Player
• and Roku’s own SoundBridge M1000

The Economist played a nice April Fool’s joke with this article.